Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
