A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
